Research
Universe-level cohort intelligence and forward-looking scenario analyses, generated quarterly from FDIC Call Report data. Every artifact follows the four-step doctrine: pattern, precedent, mechanism, decision.
Cohorts
10 screens · 9 activeUniverse-level screens identifying cohorts of banks sharing structural characteristics. Each cohort renders as a four-step doctrine artifact with named institutions, precedent analysis, and advisory implications.
CRE Concentration · Standard Threshold
Banks with commercial real estate loans above 300% of risk-based capital — the 2006 interagency threshold.
1,127 of 4,108 active institutions — 27.43% of the universe — carry commercial real estate exposure above 300% of total risk-based capital at 2025Q4. This is the canonical…
CRE Concentration · Extreme
Banks with CRE loans above 500% of risk-based capital. The tail of the concentration distribution.
117 of 4,108 active U.S. banks (2.85% of the universe) carry commercial real estate exposure above 500% of risk-based capital at 2025Q4 — well past the 300% interagency…
NIM Compression
Banks whose net interest margin has compressed materially — the earnings-side stress signature.
36 of 4,108 active U.S. banks (0.88% of the universe) carry both an absolute net interest margin below 2.5% and a year-over-year NIM decline exceeding 30 basis points at 2025Q4.…
Capital Depletion Trajectory
Banks with multi-quarter erosion in CET1 capital — the sequence that precedes regulatory intervention.
A single institution out of 4,108 active banks — 0.02% of the universe — matches the capital-depletion trajectory profile at 2025Q4: CET1 below 9.0% with three or more consecutive…
Core Deposit Concentrated
Banks with core deposits above 90% of total deposits alongside deteriorating margin. Concentrated-funding stress.
117 of 4,108 active U.S. banks (2.85% of the universe) carry core deposits above 90% of total deposits while reporting year-over-year NIM compression at 2025Q4. The cohort skews…
CRE × Unrealized Losses
Banks combining high CRE exposure with concentrated held-to-maturity book. Adjacent to the March 2024 Klaros framework.
121 of 4,108 active U.S. banks — 2.95% of the universe — sit at the intersection of commercial real estate concentration above 300% of risk-based capital and held-to-maturity…
NIM Compression · IRRBB
Pre-failure signature: NIM below 2.5%, HTM above 15% of assets, YoY NIM decline. SVB-shape today.
One institution out of 4,108 active U.S. banks — 0.02% of the universe — carries the compound rate-risk signature that preceded Silicon Valley Bank's 2023Q1 failure: year-over-year…
Asset Quality Deterioration
Elevated Texas Ratio and adverse NPL trajectory. The pre-enforcement asset quality signature.
Fourteen of 4,108 active U.S. institutions (0.34% of the universe) carry the compound asset-quality-deterioration signature at 2025Q4: Texas ratio above 40%, non-performing loans…
Funding Stress Compound
· disabledSynapse-shape signature — brokered deposit concentration plus wholesale funding reliance. Awaiting funding-family loader.
Two metric dependencies broken: brokered_dep_pct is zero across the entire universe at 2025Q4 (Phase 1.5 ticket 1.8.2 — likely never wired up to ingestion) and liquid_asset_ratio shows internal unit inconsistency (median 0.0025, max 47.53 — Phase 1.5 ticket 1.8.4). ltd_ratio works fine but a single-predicate funding cohort isn't differentiated enough to ship.
Quiet Conservative Stress
Conservative funding profiles with concentrated HTM books and declining NIM. Discovery-mode output.
Eighteen of 4,108 active U.S. banks (0.44% of the universe) share a structural profile at 2025Q4 that no single conventional screen would surface: core deposit funding above 80%,…
- Sector Pulse Reports — quarterly publication
- Discovery Briefs — rare, brand-defining findings
- Scenario Briefs — forward-looking stress projections
- Reverse Stress Briefs — feared-outcome scenario regions
- Sensitivity Maps — assumption-response curves